2025 Headlines, Hindsight Included

Separating the news from the noise, again

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.”  - Niels Bohr

Every January, the headlines start to get a little louder. Market predictions get sharper. Certainty gets bolder. And the temptation to “do something” with your portfolio creeps back in.

We decided to look back at what the world was reading at the beginning of 2025 and compare it to what actually happened.

The punchline? The same one long-term investors keep learning the hard way: market predictions make great content, but they’re a terrible foundation for an investment strategy.

When the headline is “right,” it doesn’t mean the process was

Gold is a perfect example. A confident early-2025 forecast suggested gold could surge past $3,000; it did, and then some. But gold doesn’t have an expected return the way productive assets do. It doesn’t generate cash flow. Its “return” depends on what someone else will pay later. When market predictions like that come true, it may say more about luck than insight.

Bitcoin followed a similar path. Yes, it had a big run, and then gave much of it back. Assets without a clear expected return can be wildly volatile, and volatility isn’t a risk-management feature.

Markets move on expectations, not headlines

Several 2025 stock market predictions leaned pessimistic: Global stocks were “vulnerable,” trade tensions would “temper gains,” recession was “coming.” Yet markets delivered strong returns in many of the very places that sounded most concerning.

That’s not because risks weren’t real. It’s because prices already reflected widely known risks. To “win” by acting on headlines, the future has to turn out differently than what the market already expects.

Companies can report “great” earnings and still see their stock fall. Why? Because investing isn’t about today’s news; it’s about whether today’s news beats what was already priced in.

The most useful number

One headline in a long list of 2025 stock market predictions claimed investors had a 72% chance of making money in stocks in that year. The precision is amusing, but the idea is sound. Historically, markets have been positive roughly three-quarters of the time.

The real lesson isn’t about last year, or the upcoming year. It’s about staying invested over a time horizon that matches what stocks are built for: the long run. And if you’re going to be a long-term investor, negative years aren’t a bug; they’re part of the deal.

A reminder worth keeping as predictions ramp up

“Wall Street is again making stock market predictions for this year, but don’t pay too much attention.”

We agree. Take any 2026 stock market predictions you come across with a very large grain of salt. Read the news to stay informed. And build your plan around what has historically worked: diversification, discipline, and a portfolio designed for your future. 

Not this week’s headlines.